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Research Article: The association between sports participation and fertility intentions among Chinese youth: an empirical study based on the China family panel studies

Date Published: 2026-10-02

Abstract:
This study aimed to examine the association between sports participation and fertility intentions among Chinese youth and to assess the potential mediating roles of life satisfaction and confidence in the future. Data were drawn from the 2018 and 2022 waves of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). A serial mediation model was specified to examine the potential psychological pathways linking sports participation to fertility intentions. Two-way fixed-effects regression models were used to assess the statistical association between sports participation and fertility intentions. The significance of the specific indirect effects and the serial indirect effect was evaluated using an individual-level cluster bootstrap procedure with 5,000 resamples. Sports participation was significantly and positively associated with fertility intentions ( ? =?0.046, p <?0.01). Mediation analysis revealed that the total indirect effect of life satisfaction and future confidence was 0.015 (95% CI?=?[0.009, 0.020]). Specifically, the independent indirect effect of life satisfaction was 0.007 (95% CI?=?[0.003, 0.011]), and the independent indirect effect of future confidence was 0.005 (95% CI?=?[0.003, 0.007]). Furthermore, the chain mediating effect of life satisfaction and future confidence was 0.003 (95% CI?=?[0.001, 0.005]). Sports participation, as a positive health-related behavior, was not only directly associated with stronger fertility intentions among young adults but was also indirectly associated with fertility intentions through the independent and serial pathways involving life satisfaction and confidence in the future. These findings suggest that public sports participation and psychological well-being promotion may be considered within a broader framework of reproductive health and family-support policies. Integrating such approaches with efforts to support young adults’ physical and psychological well-being and positive expectations for the future may contribute to a more supportive social environment for family formation.

Introduction:
In recent years, China has undergone profound demographic changes. Data from the Seventh National Population Census indicate that China’s total fertility rate declined to 1.3 in 2020 ( 1 ), while individuals aged 60?years and older accounted for 18.7% of the population and those aged 65?years and older accounted for 13.5%, highlighting the growing challenges of low fertility and population aging ( 2 ). To promote long-term balanced population development, China has successively implemented the “selective…

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